The Céspedes Effect

            There is no question that Yoenis Céspedes has had a massive effect on the Mets offense--one only needs to have paid some attention to their run to the 2015 World Series to see that. Since Céspedes joined the team at the trade deadline last year, the Mets have been winning at more than a 58% clip in the regular season with him in the starting lineup compared to 45% when he isn’t. Adding one of the premier sluggers in the league will do that, but besides his own hits how else is Céspedes helping the Mets win games?

            Between injuries and offseason acquisitions, the top of the Mets lineup has been a revolving door since acquiring Céspedes on July 31^st of last year. The two consistent presences have been Céspedes--though he has missed a few stretches because of injury--and Curtis Granderson. Most often, Céspedes hits in the third or fourth slot while Granderson leads off.

            Many baseball fans believe that having a great hitter behind someone in the lineup provides a sort of protection- they tend to see better pitches because the pitcher can’t afford to pitch around them. With a player like Céspedes stepping to the plate later in the inning, whoever is on the mound can’t afford to put Granderson on base as that could mean another run coming home. Whether such lineup protection is a real effect is still up for debate amongst people in the baseball community, but since Céspedes joined Granderson in the Mets lineup last season, it appears that he has provided something that allows Granderson to thrive.

            By just about any measure, Curtis Granderson has been performing better at the plate when Céspedes is in the starting lineup. Since Céspedes’ first game with the Mets on August 1^st, 2015, Granderson is slashing 0.238/0.312/0.463 in 602 at-bats, below from his career 0.255/0.339/0.473 marks. The difference between when Céspedes is in and out of the lineup, however, is staggering. With Céspedes in the lineup, Granderson is slashing 0.250/0.360/0.501 in 551 at-bats versus 0.186/0.262/0.302 in 129 at-bats with Céspedes out. With Céspedes in the lineup Granderson’s line is much closer to, and maybe even better than, his career averages. Granderson’s numbers without Céspedes hitting behind him pale in comparison to those over his entire career and, one could argue, merit his being removed from the lineup.

            As well as having a significantly better slash line with Céspedes in the lineup behind him, Granderson also appears to be taking more selective approach at the plate. With a 19.8% strikeout percentage and 13.5% walk percentage Granderson edges out his career numbers at 22.7% and 10.8% marks, as well as dramatically different from the 26.9% and 7.6% splits when Céspedes is out of the lineup. While Granderson isn’t hitting for a better average than his career number, he is putting the ball in play more and getting on base more with Céspedes in the lineup. This could very well be a result of pitchers going right at him, allowing him to see and swing at more pitches near the center of the zone while taking more pitches that skirt the edges. Without a bat like Céspedes behind Granderson in the lineup, pitchers may be more inclined to throw him their best stuff, dancing around the edges of the plate because they aren’t afraid to lose and walk him.

            Having better plate discipline and seeing better pitches often brings better contact when a batter does swing. This is certainly the case with Granderson, as his isolated power, a measure that helps to show how often a player is hitting for extra bases, is a whopping 0.250 with Céspedes in the lineup, compared to 0.218 for his career and 0.116 when he’s played without Céspedes. Leaving aside doubles and triples, Granderson has 34 home runs when in the lineup with Céspedes, or 16.2 at-bats per home run compared to just 2 without him, translating to 64.5 at-bats per homer.

            On top of Granderson hitting better, Céspedes is manufacturing more runs for the Mets by driving in those ahead of him. Getting on base 201 (104 non-HR hits, 88 walks, 9 HBP) times, Granderson has scored 99 runs versus crossing the plate 16 times in 36 times on base without Céspedes to drive him in. That translates to, on average, 0.22 fewer appearances on base for him to come around to score with Céspedes there. Over an entire season where a player like Granderson will get on base nearly 200 times, those runs add up and will help the Mets win games.

            Clearly, the Mets offense is stronger with both Curtis Granderson and Yoenis Céspedes in the lineup. Having Céspedes lurking in the middle of the order provides a power threat allows on Granderson to become a much better hitter at the top of the lineup. Whether that increase in production is due to the protection Céspedes provides or something else, nobody can know for sure. From the Mets perspective, though, it doesn’t matter what’s causing it; as long as there are more runs crossing the plate and more wins on the ledger, they’ll take it.