The Comeback Mets

            Historically, the New York Mets have a penchant for disappointing performances and this season, much of that has come from their bullpen. While led by an elite closer in Jeurys Familia and a set-up man who used to be a closer in Addison Reed, they have found countless ways to blow leads in the late innings. Last night was no different as Reed took a blown save and later Familia put himself in position to take a loss. Yet despite those performances, the Mets came back to win the game. While the Mets have blown countless leads in a fashion similar to last night, they’ve also managed to provide some of the most exciting moments in baseball this season because of them.

            The Mets win last night was their sixth walk-off win of the season, just one shy of their seven last year with a few games still left to play. Remarkably, five of those six walk-off wins have come after what FanGraphs terms a “meltdown”, or MD. A meltdown is a statistic for relievers that credits a pitcher for their impact on their team’s chance to win. A reliever earns a meltdown if their win probability added, WPA, is less than -0.06, or -6%, for the game. In this way, a meltdown matches up closely with a blown save or hold, though it can be applied more widely in other innings or situations outside of the strict definitions of saves and holds. So while Mets relievers have seemed to blow things in big moments all too frequently, the offense has often managed to come back to provide exhilarating wins shortly thereafter. I’ve decided to run through a couple of those specific wins in terms of win probability (WP) below.

May 27^th: Mets 6, Dodgers 5

            After a sparkling start of 7 IP, 1ER by Jacob DeGrom and a combined scoreless 8^th by Jerry Blevins and Reed, the Mets entered the top of the 9^th up 5-1 with a 97% win probability. Over the first five batters of the inning, Familia recorded a strikeout, three singles, and a walk to make the game 5-2 with two outs and the bases loaded. Another strikeout brought the WP to 92% before Chase Utley unleashed a three-run double to tie the game and earn Familia the MD. After another strikeout, the Mets went into the bottom of the 9^th with a win probability of 63%. In the first AB of the bottom of the 9^th, Curtis Granderson ripped an 0-1 pitch over the right field wall for a walk-off homer, a WP swing of 37% in one swing.

September 17^th: Mets 3, Twins 2

            In a closely-contested game throughout, Yoenis Céspedes’ clutch RBI single in the bottom of the 8^th tied the game 2-2 and gave the Mets a win probability of 61%. Starting off the top of the 11^th, with both teams having a WP of 50%, Byron Buxton stepped up to the plate and capped an eight-pitch at-bat with a leadoff home run to left, dropping the Mets WP to 16% and giving Hansel Robles the MD. As we’d seen before, Curtis Granderson led off the bottom of the inning and cranked an 0-1 pitch the other way and over the left-center field wall to tie the game. That hit was worth a WP swing of 44%, and despite continuing to put a runner on third with one out which peaked the Mets WP for the inning at 70%, they couldn’t capitalize. A scoreless 12^th by Josh Edgin got the Mets up to a 63% WP, but two quick outs to start the bottom of the inning brought it back down to 53%. Once again Granderson stepped to the plate and this time worked a full count. On the sixth pitch of the AB, Grandy pulled one down the right field line for his second home run in two innings, creating a WPA of 47%. Grandy was clearly the star of the game, accruing a massive 91% WPA in his last two ABs alone.

September 22^nd: Mets 9, Phillies 8

            In a very back-and-forth game, the Mets entered the 8^th inning leading 4-3 with a win probability of 75%. Trusting in Reed to shut the Phillies down, the Mets and their fans were disappointed as he quickly served up a three-run home run to Maikel Franco, dropping the Mets WP to a lowly 14% and giving Reed the Mets first meltdown of the game. Fast forward to the bottom of the 9^th and a Jay Bruce strikeout brought up Jose Reyes, down 6-4 with one on and one out, translating to a 10% WP. Reyes took Jeanmar Gomez’s offering deep to right for a game-tying home run, a WP jump of 48% in one swing. Moving ahead to the top of the 11^th, the Mets entered the inning with a WP of 50% even. Despite recording 2 outs in the first three batters of the inning, Jeurys Familia served up an RBI single to AJ Ellis and exited the game leaving runners on 1^st and 3^rd after earning the Mets second MD of the game. Blevins came in and promptly hit and walked the first two batters to score another run. Just like that, entering the bottom of the inning the Mets WP was down to just 9%. After a Brandon Nimmo groundout to start the inning brought it even lower to 4%, a walk and a hit set up Asdrubal Cabrera for the biggest hit of the game. He launched an Edubray Ramos pitch way over the right field wall, accounting for a walk-off win, a massive 81% WPA, and the best bat flip of the season.