Watson's Secret Weapon

            When it comes to evaluating Deshaun Watson as a pro prospect, there are plenty of mixed opinions. While he is an electrifying playmaker with both his legs and his arm, many question the role of running quarterbacks in the NFL today. Some wonder if his arm is good enough to overcome NFL defenses that will partially neutralize his rushing impact. While bigger, faster, and more athletic NFL defenses may hamper his ability to break long runs, his new team will rely on him to continue to use his legs for what he does best- avoid sacks.

            In his breakout 2015 campaign, Watson had an FBS-best 107.3 EPA, or expected points added, according to ESPN. Total EPA is a combination of four parts: passing, rushing, sacks, and penalties. Watson ranked 5^th in the FBS in rushing EPA, 10^th in passing EPA, and 11^th in penalty EPA. Those three numbers were bolstered by him taking part in a 3^rd-best 746 action plays. Where taking part in so many plays might hurt him, sacks, is where he really stands out. While he ranked a modest 28^th of 128 players in sack EPA with -8.5, nobody who ranked ahead of him took part in even 650 action plays. No player ranked ahead of him except Navy’s rush-first Keenan Reynolds, registered more than 23 rush EPA, a far cry from his 33.2. This unique combination of running and avoiding sacks while still being an elite passing QB are what make Watson special and bode well for his NFL future.

            Quarterbacks in the NFL that pose a threat to run can add a new dynamic to their team-- the top three teams in rush yards during the 2015 season (Buffalo, Carolina, Seattle) were led by the top three quarterbacks in rushing yards. Being a rushing threat, though, often leads to increased attention by the defense and thereby more pressure on them. The signal-callers leading two of those leading rushing teams, Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor, felt this pressure often as both teams were in the bottom 10 in the NFL in sacks allowed. Newton’s Panthers ranked a middling 14^th, and they lost only one regular season game on their way to Super Bowl 50. All three of those players were threats with their legs in college, each ranking in the top 15 in rush EPA their final seasons, but none of them were very adept at avoiding pressure. Newton was the best of the bunch with -14.2 sack EPA, ranking 72^nd of 117, Taylor had -19.6, good for 98^th of 117, and Wilson had -15.1, 87^th of 122. Of the three only Newton had more rush EPA than Watson did in 2015.

If Watson can continue to use his legs and avoid sacks as well as he has, he could go on to lead one of the premier rushing attacks in the NFL while simultaneously staying upright when he drops back to pass. That’s a balance that many NFL QBs have struggled to strike- the one who did it best in 2015 won the NFL MVP and came one win from a championship. While pundits will continue to worry how his ability to run will translate to the NFL, it’s really his ability to get out of pressure that will make him stand out.